Putin's plan: African nations wary of Russian convicts
African countries fear that following the war in Ukraine, Russia may bolster its mercenary forces with criminals. This concerns those initially deployed to the Ukrainian front. Russian mercenaries have been accused of war crimes, including in Libya and Mali. Observers fear that sending convicts to Africa will escalate violence.
It is speculated that Vladimir Putin might send former prisoners to Africa to prevent their return to Russia.
Prof. Amadou Diouf from Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar emphasises that Russia faces a dilemma about what to do with the former prisoners who fought in Ukraine.
- Their return is feared by the residents of their home villages and cities - Diouf told the Polish Press Agency. These fears originate from numerous crimes committed by these individuals.
For Putin, according to the Senegalese political scientist, it might be tempting to send these criminals to Africa, where they would reinforce the existing mercenary units of the former Wagner Group and other private formations, which are already largely comprised of bandits.
Russian convicts in Africa
According to a report by Fahad Mirza from the Centre for Human Rights Research, the majority of the Wagner Group forces in Ukraine consisted of convicts. At the peak of operations in 2023, their number reached approximately 50,000. Convicts and repeat offenders were also added to mercenary groups stationed in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, Niger, the Central African Republic, and Mozambique.
Mirza predicts that Russian mercenary groups in Africa could transform into terrorist organisations.
Russian mercenaries are accused of war crimes in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Humanitarian organisations and the US State Department accuse them of deliberately killing civilians. The presence of criminals among the mercenaries raises concerns about further escalation of violence.
The BBC revealed that Russia has enacted laws allowing prisoners to choose war over facing court. After the conflict in Ukraine ends, Russia might send these individuals to Africa to avoid their return to the country. This scenario raises concerns among African communities.
- Months spent fighting haven't rehabilitated anyone. Prof. Amadou Diouf noted that criminals who went through the system have become even more dangerous.
