Putin's nuclear doctrine revamp: A direct message to the West
The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has approved a revised nuclear doctrine. According to the new regulations, a "critical threat" to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and Belarus can serve as grounds for the use of nuclear weapons. The doctrine is a response to the American approval for Ukraine's use of ATACMS, comments Lt. Col. (res.) Maciej Korowaj for WP.
The updated doctrine suggests that a nuclear attack basis could be "aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies by any non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state", as well as a massive air assault using non-nuclear means, including drones.
In the document signed by Vladimir Putin, it is stated, among other things, that "Russia considers nuclear weapons as a deterrent, whose use is an extreme and forced measure".
The decree expands the list of "military threats", which could be grounds for using nuclear weapons. Previously, the basis was only the threat to the state's very existence. The mentioned attack using conventional missiles or drones may meet these criteria.
Poland "integrated" into the threat system
Shortly after the document was published, Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, addressed the matter. He said the changes should be seen as a "definite signal to the West". It's a warning about the consequences for countries if they partake in an attack on Russia by various means, not necessarily nuclear, said Peskov.
According to military analyst Lt. Col. (res.) Maciej Korowaj, it is the Kremlin's response to US President Joe Biden's approval of using long-range American weapons supplied to Ukraine for deep strikes into Russia.
The doctrine has both a psychological and practical purpose. First, the Russians tested their nuclear capabilities for almost a year, and now they are formally introducing a change to the doctrine. It is more aimed at the USA than, for example, at our country. However, we have an American base in Redzikowo and around 10,000 American soldiers stationed in Poland, so we are "integrated" into the threat system, says Lt. Col. (res.) Korowaj.
"The US can decapitate Russia's nuclear capabilities"
As the expert recalls, earlier this year, the American nuclear doctrine was approved, although it was classified.
This causes a lot of unknowns. The Russians expect that if they launch a strike with a single nuclear missile, the US will respond with a single missile as well. It is probably written in the American doctrine that it is asymmetrical. And here, problems arise for Moscow, comments the military analyst.
What are these problems? The Russians are unable to decapitate any American nuclear strike. Meanwhile, the US can, with a hybrid strike using precise nuclear and conventional weapons, neutralise the nuclear capabilities of the Russian Federation. To decapitate means to definitively and permanently destroy, believes Lt. Col. (res.) Korowaj.
And he emphasises, even if the Russians want to use nuclear charges against the US, they will not achieve their objectives in a nuclear conflict. A nuclear war is, of course, a theoretical war, but based on it, security issues of the given country are realised, the expert points out.
"Russia needs Ukraine whole, not contaminated"
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the revised nuclear doctrine aims to "make potential enemies aware of the inevitability of retaliation for an attack on Russia or its allies." Does this mean that Russia is enabling itself to use nuclear weapons in a war with Ukraine?
Theoretically, the Russians do not detonate nuclear charges close to their borders and their troops. An explosion would affect Russian territory and soldiers. Russia needs Ukraine whole, not contaminated. It is meant to be a food reservoir that, in the past, has influenced global politics. Striking Poland would also yield nothing, although it could theoretically happen. However, that, too, is too close to Russia. Generally, Moscow does not drop atomic bombs within about 700 kilometres from its borders - claims Lt. Col. (res.) Korowaj.
The analyst believes that the countries of Western Europe should be the most concerned: Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
These are countries that possess nuclear weapons but are insufficient to surpass the nuclear potential of Russia. All these countries must cooperate with the United States in the framework of a possible response. Can Russia use nuclear weapons? Theoretically, it can, but from a practical point of view, it offers Moscow nothing - concludes Lt. Col. (res.) Korowaj.
