Putin poised for new territorial claim? Fears rise over potential Russian annexation of Transnistria

"The so-called Congress of Deputies at all Levels will petition Moscow on 27th February to annex Transnistria into Russia," informed Moldovan news outlet Deschide.md, quoting Transnistria's opposition politician, Ghenadie Ciobanu.

Ciobanu even took it a step further, implying that Putin might formally respond to this request in his address to the Russian Federal Assembly the following day.

As stated by the Daily Mail, Putin reportedly has about 2,000 peacekeeping soldiers already stationed in the territory, most of whom wish to join Moscow, according to Russian sources. It is also believed there could be thousands of Russian paramilitary fighters there.

There are concerns that Putin might use his 28th February speech to the Russian Federal Assembly to greenlight the annexation of this territory. The petition of the self-proclaimed Congress of Deputies at all Levels could potentially give Putin the ostensible "legal" power to annex Transnistria.

Analysts whom the newspaper spoke to, suggest that observing the West's failure to supply Ukraine with adequate armament, Putin believes that this new annexation will go unpunished.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that Moscow "has not abandoned its citizens living in Transnistria". On the other hand, Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova, warned last year that Russia "is orchestrating a coup in her country".

Ukrainian intelligence pointed out that Moscow's possible manoeuver is "unverified", but is under close scrutiny.

Kamil Całus, an analyst from the Center for Eastern Studies, highlighted that although no concrete action has been taken yet, the media, along with several commentators, are speculating about a possible Russian operation in Transnistria.

"Indeed, Transnistria could petition Russia for recognition, it wouldn't be a first, but from Moscow's viewpoint, a positive response might not yield substantial benefits - besides escalating tensions in Moldova and the region," noted Całus.

Całus suggests that such a move by Moscow "would be of no practical significance", and might actually expose Russia's vulnerability. However, he emphasised that "the decision to recognise can't be dismissed".

Całus sees the potential annexation of Transnistria as very unlikely. "Such a move is not only impractical at present, but could also expose Transnistria to a potential attack from Ukraine. An attack Russia wouldn't be able to fend off," assessed Całus.

Source: Daily Mail / PAP