NewsPolls suggest Zelensky facing defeat in next election, as Zaluzhnyi rises

Polls suggest Zelensky facing defeat in next election, as Zaluzhnyi rises

Volodymyr Zelensky and Valeriy Zaluzhny would make it to the second round of the elections if they were held right now.

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10 March 2024 18:32

The last presidential elections in Ukraine occurred in March and April 2019. In the second round, Volodymyr Zelensky won with an impressive 73.22 per cent vote, causing Petro Poroshenko to cede the position after experiencing a significant defeat in the Ukrainians' second trip to the polls.

The office term for the head of state in Ukraine is five years, and a candidate can only run for reelection once, similar to the system in Poland. Generally, Ukrainians should be gearing up for the next elections, and the presidential campaign should be reaching its final stretch. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically over the past few years.

According to Ukrainian law, elections cannot be held during a state of war, which currently encompasses the entire country. Therefore, the parliamentary elections, initially scheduled for October 2023, and the aforementioned presidential elections, set to begin their first round in March 2024, have been delayed.

It is clear this will not happen, but it doesn't mean Ukrainians are solely focusing on the war with Russia and defending their homeland, sidelining internal politics for the time being. This is demonstrated by a survey conducted for the Ukrainian portal "Censor.NET" by the SOCIS company.

Should the elections occur in early March 2024, Volodymyr Zelensky would advance to the second round, winning around 21.7 percent of the votes. However, there is one contender who currently outshines the incumbent president in the polls.

This is Valerii Zaluzhnyi — the former chief commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who, facing issues (declared "unfit for military service"), was appointed by Zelensky as Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom on 7 March 2024.

Zaluzhnyi is highly respected domestically, and now he has opted to delve deeper into politics by taking on the ambassador role. He hasn't officially declared his intent to run for the presidential election yet, but that could change.

According to the cited survey, he would secure about 31.3 percent of the votes in the first round. The second round would see a resounding victory for Zaluzhnyi, with potential support of around 67.5 percent.

The portal Censor.NET also explored potential outcomes for parliamentary elections. If they were to happen presently, a hypothetical party led by Valerii Zaluzhnyi would capture a majority in Parliament with a rating of 34.2 percent, including undecided voters. Excluding them, the figure jumps to an impressive 46.4 percent.