Poland on edge as Russia-Belarus military pact unfolds

Many of the reports presented by Russian and Belarusian media or government officials are propaganda elements. Such reports are part of the information war conducted by the Russian Federation.

On Friday, 26th December, two days before the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Union State of Belarus and Russia agreement, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will finalise a landmark military cooperation agreement, as reported by "Dziennik Gazeta Prawna."

It has already been decided that, among other things, three joint military training centres will be established: in the Kaliningrad region, near Grodno by the border with Poland, and in the Nizhny Novgorod area, which will essentially serve as military bases.

The military agreement between Russia and Belarus includes the deployment of Belarusian battalions near the borders with Ukraine and Poland. According to Kyiv, this is an attempt to scout the area.

The alliance between these states also includes joint military actions and Russia's support for Belarus. The intensification of military integration is causing concern for the Polish side, which is anxiously monitoring developments.

On Sunday, an agreement on the mutual recognition of visas for third countries' citizens and stateless persons by Russia and Belarus will come into effect. These events are seen as a step towards drastically reducing security in the region on NATO’s eastern flank. The European Commission fears that a possible escalation of the migration crisis is also possible. The ambitious agreement between Russia and Belarus could weaken Minsk.

The cooperation between Russia and Belarus is tightening, resulting in the approval of 28 union programmes by Putin and Lukashenko. The plans include not only military activities but also economic integration between the two states. Among the priority actions is the further expansion of a joint military grouping to strengthen the regional security of the Belarus-Russia Union.

The Polish government argues that the key issues are the undisclosed clauses of the agreement on the principles of commanding the Belarusian military and whether it might become part of the Russian army, potentially engaging in the war in Ukraine without Lukashenko's consent. Russia already controls Belarusian special services.

However, an analyst from the Centre for Eastern Studies on Belarus dismisses this perspective in a conversation with Interia.

"There are no real reasons for Belarusian soldiers to be sent to Ukraine. As long as there is no large grouping of Russian troops in Belarus - and there is not, and there is no indication that it will change - the Belarusian army will not strike Ukraine because it is too weak, and society would not accept an attack. President Lukashenko understands this well," commented Kamil Kłysiński.