Patriot dilemma: Romania's cautious approach to aiding Ukraine

Ukraine is currently facing enormous difficulties in countering Russian ballistic missiles. The missiles for post-Soviet systems have long been depleted, and the number of Western systems capable of countering such targets is far from sufficient. Romania is considering providing Ukraine with an additional Patriot system battery.

In an interview with Euronews, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu noted that classified discussions are being held with specialists from the Ministry of Defence, Foreign Affairs, and NATO partners. After considering Romania's defence issues, a decision will be made which must remain unaffected.

This is a challenging topic for Romania, as only one operational Patriot battery was delivered in 2020 under a 2017 contract that included seven batteries with a delivery spread over ten years. However, it is worth noting that in 2023, Romania received a second battery, although it will take some time before it becomes operational.

These are PAC-3+ standard batteries, the most modern currently available. They offer better interception capabilities than the older-generation Patriot systems Germany and the USA provided to Ukraine.

Romanian Patriot system batteries include, among other things, the use of very expensive and specialised anti-ballistic missile PAC-3 MSE interceptors and integration with the IBCS (Integrated Air and Missile Defence Battle Command System).

This connects the Patriot system batteries and other systems, such as the short-range Narew or NASAMS, in a network. This allows for more effective target destruction, less vulnerability to the destruction of specific battery elements, and better situational awareness.

For example, within the anti-aircraft system operating within the IBCS system, a Patriot can fire based on radar data from another battery, significantly mitigating the shortcomings of the AN/MPQ-65 sector radar with a detection angle of 120 degrees. Moreover, if, for example, a battery's command vehicle or radar is destroyed, it does not mean the "silencing" of all the battery's launchers, as these can be connected on the fly to another battery.

PAC-3 MSE missiles are the most modern interceptors for the Patriot. The first test was in 2008, and serial production started only in 2018. Their unique feature is the destruction of the target with a precisely guided kinetic warhead rather than a fragmentation warhead, as is usually the case.

This guarantees a 100% chance of destroying a target that could survive a fragmenting warhead explosion. However, the need for surgical precision guidance in the final phase of flight makes these missiles extremely expensive, reaching up to £4-6 million per unit.

Their effective range is around 40 km from the launcher for ballistic targets or around 120 km for military aircraft. All this makes the likelihood of delivering such a Patriot system battery to Ukraine relatively small. It is quite possible that the US, which, unlike Europe, does not provide Ukraine with its latest equipment except for a few exceptions like GLSDB, will block the plans for its transfer.