North Korea amplifies arms shipments to Russia, fuelling Ukraine conflict

Images suggest that a cargo ship resembling the Russian vessel Lady R, previously used for transporting ammunition in October 2023 and February this year, docked at the North Korean port of Rason. The vessel is thought to be carrying containers to be filled with weapons intended for the Russian military, suggests the ISW study.

The think tank, referencing NK News, noted that units from Russia most recently arrived in Rason on February 12.

By the end of February, the South Korean Ministry of Defence estimated that, following the September meeting between the leaders of North Korea and Russia, Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, North Korea had dispatched around 7,400 containers of ammunition to Russia, which are being utilised in the conflict against Ukraine. This equates to roughly 3 million 152mm artillery shells or about 559,000 122mm calibre shells.

North Korea has developed a rocket-propelled grenade launcher (RSM), which it can export to Russia - reported ISW in mid-February. Maj Gen Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Military (GUR), mentioned that North Korea provided Russia with one million pieces of artillery ammunition from September to November 2023. U.S. officials have identified that Russian forces have used at least nine North Korean missiles in Ukraine since February 2024, according to ISW.

Russian military capabilities in the Baltic Sea region are expected to be bolstered by significant reforms initiated by the Kremlin, as reported by Lithuanian intelligence. These reforms involve substantial overhauls of the armed forces, including structural adjustments and changes in the command system, some of which are already underway in the Kaliningrad region and western Russia. More details on these changes can be found here.

Financial expenditures on the conflict with Ukraine significantly exceeded Russia's budgetary allocations for the endeavour. In the first half of 2023, spending had already surpassed the total budgeted for the entire year. Furthermore, by the beginning of this year, more than one-third of the military budget allocated for the whole of 2024 had been expended—over 10 trillion rubles, or approximately £90 billion.