New regime forces Russia out: Military bases in Syria untenable
Russia may need to forget about military bases in Syria for around a dozen years, according to a Russian military analyst. He believes that the new government, mindful of the Russian bombings, will not permit such facilities on its soil. However, there are many indications that it may wish to establish relations with Russia.
The Russian army had been present on Syrian territory for nearly 10 years after intervening in the armed conflict and supporting dictator Bashar al-Assad. According to the agreement, the Russians were expected to remain in the country until at least 2066. However, following the regime change, they began to withdraw.
Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, in an analysis for the portal Mediazona, stated that Russia would need to fully withdraw from the Middle Eastern country.
- Considering Russia's significant history with the former opposition - primarily the bombings - it is unlikely that the new Syrian government will tolerate Russian bases on its territory - Mikhailov stated.
"The plan was buried"
Shortly after the dictator was overthrown, there were rumours that Russia might consider a plan to create the "People's Republic of Latakia" in the coastal areas of Syria. But considering the attitude of the local population in the region towards the Assad dynasty, Mikhailov assessed that "the plan was buried before it was invented."
He also added that the withdrawal of Russian troops is "the best of all bad decisions" by the Kremlin. According to him, Russia will have to forget about bases in Syria "probably for several decades."
He mentioned that all indications are that Syria does not intend to hinder the evacuation as it seeks to avoid an "open confrontation" with other countries. - The priority is, of course, the reconstruction of Syria - the analyst says.
What about Russian actions in Africa?
Simultaneously, the change of authorities in Damascus is a blow to Russian operations in Africa. Bases in Syria were used as a logistics hub for supplying mercenaries operating on the largest continent.
- This significantly limits Russia's influence in the Middle East and also questions Russia's impact in Africa, where Russia continues to support the regime of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, and several juntas in the Sahel region in north-western Africa, where various types of Russian mercenaries assist them in fighting against Al-Qaeda and Tuareg separatists. Moreover, there are other projects such as in the Central African Republic and Sudan - Mikhailov lists.
- Both logistical and political issues do not yet have a clear solution. This doesn't mean that the entire architecture of Russian presence in Africa will collapse tomorrow, but at least it has become a significant question mark - the expert stated.
Source: Mediazona
