NewsNATO's Baltic Dilemma: Underestimating Russia's Submarine Threat

NATO's Baltic Dilemma: Underestimating Russia's Submarine Threat

Since the Baltic became an inland sea of NATO, voices have appeared, claiming all danger had vanished and that the Swedes and Finns would block the Russian fleet. Nothing could be further from the truth.

ORP Orkan

Images source: © East News | Wojciech Strozyk/REPORTER

Sławek Zagórski

7 April 2024 15:41

Following Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO, nine out of ten countries bordering the Baltic Sea belong to the North Atlantic Alliance. However, the Swedes, Finns, and Latvians warn that the Russian Baltic Fleet, which regularly conducts exercises with which they occasionally have to deal, cannot be underestimated.

The Kremlin has a long tradition of sniffing around Swedish coasts. In October 1981, a Whiskey-class submarine, S-363, ran aground near the Torhamnaskär islet, an event that went down in history as "Whiskey on the Rock". In October 2014, the Swedish skerries were visited by a Russian miniature submarine, presumably of the Triton-NN type, used for sabotage operations and special forces support. The unit left a long trail on the seabed when it hit a shoal. In 2017, a Russian submarine collided with the seabed at the entrance to the port in Gävle. And these are only the incidents revealed due to accidents. How many have the Swedes not disclosed? It is unknown, as some events remain classified.

Currently, the Russian Baltic Fleet only has the submarine "Dmitrov" of project 877E, which is the same age as the Polish "Orzeł". However, it underwent modernization that enhanced its combat capabilities. Temporarily, "Novorossiysk" and "Krasnodar", formally belonging to the Black Sea Fleet, have appeared in the Baltic Sea as they cannot return to the Black Sea. In addition, ships constructed in St. Petersburg are undergoing sea trials in the Baltic.

Russians strengthen the fleet

Russians have long been aware that strengthening their submarine forces in the Baltic Sea is necessary. Reserve Commander Vasily Dandykin, who analyzed the situation in the Baltic following Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO for the "Izvestia" newspaper, noted, "In the Baltic Sea zone, there are over 30 submarines. The situation is not easy."

Three years earlier, "Izvestia" reported that "The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation will strengthen the Baltic Fleet with the latest diesel-powered submarines of project 0636.3": "The first of this series will be the submarine "Petrozavodsk". In the future, several more project ships should be sent to this region. According to experts, they are perfectly suited for the Baltic and will effectively deter aggression against Russia".

Indeed, ultimately, four, perhaps even six, submarines will be located in the Baltic. Initially, the Baltic Fleet was supposed to receive new ships, yet increasingly, voices have been heard that it has been promoted in the hierarchy due to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO. The first new Lada-class "Velikiye Luki" submarine will enter service at the end of this year.

In an interview with PAP, Commander Erik Ahlqvis, head of the operational department of the 1st Submarine Flotilla of Sweden, warned that the Russians have learned their lesson and concluded that they have modern technology and advanced systems. Therefore, as NATO members, we must also continuously develop and monitor their actions.

The knowledge of the Swedes is appreciated by allies, who also often deal with Russian submarines. - The Swedes are masters in everything that happens on the seabed and underwater - said Commander Juri Saska, the commander of the Estonian Navy, in an interview with ERR television.

Swedish forces

The Swedes themselves have four submarines. The two oldest are to be replaced by new A26 type units. Stockholm also plans to replace small corvettes with ships capable of operating in difficult Baltic weather conditions. That's why they have abandoned the idea of building Visby II type corvettes and are planning the construction of larger units, closer in size to frigates, which will have not only strong anti-aircraft systems but also advanced anti-submarine warfare systems.

Units of these dimensions, supplemented by helicopters and their own submarines, will be able to effectively paralyze the Russian submarine fleet. Other countries are following this path. The Finns plan to commission four multi-purpose Pohjanmaa-class corvettes between 2023-2025, which will replace eight smaller missile boats. Although they call them corvettes, in size, they are closer to frigates. Germany last year began construction of the first of the F126 multi-purpose frigates and 212CD type submarines.

Poland is just starting

Poland has begun to follow a similar path. In January 2024, the keel was laid for the first Miecznik program frigates, the future ORP "Wicher". AW101 helicopters also arrived. However, these are unprecedented worldwide, combining anti-submarine warfare tasks with search and rescue operations. Until the helicopters are separated, they cannot utilize their capabilities fully.

The Kondor and Orka programs, under which deck anti-submarine warfare helicopters are to be purchased to replace the age-old Kaman SH-2G Super Seasprite helicopters, are still in their infancy. Yet, successors to ORP "Orzeł" are still not in sight.

For now, one can only be glad that the Russians have so few submarines in the Baltic because the Polish Navy almost lacks the means to counter them. The first Miecznik will appear only six years from now. Assuming there are no delays. The construction of a submarine, along with negotiations and waiting in line, can take up to 10 years. There are four helicopters, the old anti-submarine Corvette ORP "Kaszub" and outdated Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates.

Therefore, we must keep our fingers crossed that the Russians do not finish modernizing their fleet before Poland does. Politicians play a significant role in this, as they must maintain continuous funding for military programs above all political divisions.