NATO recon flights over Crimea: Prelude to Ukrainian counterstrike?

The Rybar Channel on Telegram, likely a project run by Russian intelligence, reported information about seven NATO machines gathering information on the deployment of Russian air defence in the Crimean Peninsula.

Both Russia and Ukraine, amid the ongoing conflict, are exploiting the opportunities presented by engaging in an information war. It's crucial to note that not every piece of information shared by the involved parties is accurate.

The Rybar Channel, which poses as a Russian think-tank, suggests that the presence of NATO aircraft near Crimea might be linked to attacks being prepared by Ukrainians. It also indicates that Ukraine plans to use the recently provided ATACMS long-range missiles, with targets including the Crimean Bridge.

According to the Rybar Channel, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched three ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles on April 22. The missiles, nearly 10 feet in length and weighing around 115 kilograms, mimic the radar signature of aircraft. Their primary purpose is to confuse enemy air defences, and they can also assist in creating a safe passage for aircraft carrying actual weapons.

Each of the ADM-160 MALD missiles fired by the Ukrainians was directed at a different location, including Sevastopol and Kerch. By doing this, Ukrainians are testing Crimea's air defence capabilities in preparation for real attacks. The Russians anticipate these during Vladimir Putin's inauguration ceremony for his fourth presidential term (May 6) or during Victory Day (May 8).

Rybar detailed a wide variety of aircraft from NATO countries, which, according to the Russians, monitored the Crimean Peninsula. These included: a Boeing P-8 Poseidon flying over the Black Sea near the territorial waters of Romania, two American MQ-9 Reaper drones near the territorial waters of Bulgaria, a British Boeing RC-135 Rivet Joint operating around the Black Sea, a French E-3 Sentry escorted by Dassault Rafale fighters, an Italian G550 CAEW, and also an American RQ-4B Global Hawk drone. As noted by the Bulgarian Military, the Russians claim that the latter was the closest to the airspace of the Crimean Peninsula.

Among the potential targets of the ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometres, military equipment and facilities in Crimea are mentioned. These missiles, which can be launched from systems like the HIMARS and M270 MLRS, are expected to enable Ukrainians to hit strategic points while keeping a safe distance and to strike targets beyond the range of traditional artillery systems, such as command centres and critical infrastructure.

The long-range ATACMS missiles, nearly 6 metres in length and capable of speeds around Mach 3 (approximately 3600 km/h), vary in weight from 1600 to 2300 kilograms, depending on the variant.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the long-range ATACMS missiles "are necessary to achieve a fair peace as soon as possible." However, the Russians hold a different perspective. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned: "The transfer of missiles to Ukraine will not fundamentally alter the outcome of the military special operation. We will accomplish our objective, but it will create more problems for Ukraine itself."