Munich Security Conference stirs Europe: Understanding the urgent need for stronger defence

"This year, Europe discusses war. It is no longer a forbidden topic and everyone openly states that if Ukraine falls, then Europe, NATO will be next," indicated Marek Świerczyński, head of the security and international affairs division at the Polityka Insight centre in a conversation with the Polish Press Agency.

In Munich, it was stated openly that there is no point talking any longer, we need to arm ourselves, start ammunition and arms production. Europe genuinely needs to strengthen its defence, as the threat of war is tangible - he emphasised.

"Regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections in the US, Europe demands a path for increased defence capabilities. Irrespective of who occupies the White House, there can be an overwhelming number of challenges and crisis situations that the USA would be involved in other parts of the world and won't be able to dedicate as many resources to Europe. This is evident, and was also strongly highlighted during the conference," Świerczyński added. He believes the current stage of discussions on security in Europe can be dubbed a "potential second awakening".

The first awakening was the shock caused by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. I hope this time it's serious - he emphasised.

Another significant aspect of the transatlantic debate, according to Świerczyński, is the "return of (Volodymyr) Zelensky to the scene". "The Ukrainian president, and as a result, the Ukrainian issue, have had a few challenging months after he expressed his dissatisfaction with the West during last year's NATO summit in Vilnius. He addressed the UN among others with criticism of Poland, he was not accepted in Congress," the expert explained.

He added, his reappearance involved signing three bilateral security agreements (with the UK, Germany, and France), which were a direct outcome of last year's G7 agreements in Vilnius.

"In Munich, Zelensky received a standing ovation again. There is a sense that some introspection is happening, that they did too little, too late; that they did not recognise in time what a threat Putin is and how resolute he is. There seems to be hope for a re-engagement," Świerczyński stated.

Two years ago, nobody believed in Ukraine. Last year, we had faith and banking on a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Now again, the spectre of defeat loomed, and with it - threats to Europe too. Putin commands more troops today than before the war, though likely of inferior quality, the analyst remarked.

"I get the feeling that the murder of opposition member Alexei Navalny will serve as yet another confirmation for all that they're dealing with a homicidal maniac who shouldn't be trusted first and foremost, and secondly - who only comprehends the language of force," he added.

This year, the Munich conference marked its 60th instance. As Świerczyński underscored, it is the primary forum for friendly transatlantic dialogue, an exchange between America and its allies from Europe as well as partners from other parts of the world.

"These conferences don't dictate policy, but they reflect a certain climate. And this year, the climate is very grave, it's almost a climate of fear, but also growing awareness that action is indispensable," the Polityka Insight analyst concluded.