Moscow's nuclear weapons at NATO's new doorstep
Russia has decided to deploy tactical nuclear sabre-rattling in Karelia near the Finnish border. This is not the first time Moscow has tried to intimidate the West. The weapon, decided this time to be brought near the NATO border, is not out of the ordinary, but for Putin, maintaining such an arsenal is one of the pillars of his power.
In the eyes of many analysts, Moscow's nuclear forces have primarily become a propaganda weapon of the Kremlin. Recently, Putin has increasingly tried to scare the West with them, which can be seen as an act of Russian helplessness. This is largely due to the prolonged war in Ukraine, support coming to Kyiv from the West, and the unexpected and rapid expansion of NATO to include Sweden and Finland, greatly increasing the Alliance's potential, especially in the Baltic Sea region.
The Kremlin’s propaganda weapon at the Finnish border
Some Russian command suggests that the tactical nuclear weapons at the Finnish border are a response to the country joining NATO. Media reports that the Kremlin has decided to establish a separate missile brigade, which will be part of the newly formed Leningrad Military District. The unit's equipment will include Iskander-M systems.
It must be noted that the Iskander (SS-26 Stone in NATO code) is conventional weaponry commonly used during the war in Ukraine. It is a mobile missile system used for attacking enemy land targets. It employs various types of projectiles, mainly fragmentation-explosive warheads and cluster munitions.
In the role of a nuclear scarecrow, the Russians present, in this case, the Iskander-M variant, which can be adapted to carry nuclear loads. From publicly available information, it appears that the dedicated ballistic missiles measure 5 to 7 metres in length, and their warheads can reach a power of 5 to 50 kilotons. The range of the missiles is between 400 km and a maximum of 500 km.
Russians seek pretexts; NATO does not provide them
Another land conventional weapon of the Russians, which can transport missiles with nuclear warheads, includes the Soviet-era Toczka-U systems and the R-400 Oka. In these cases, the range could be even shorter than that of the Iskander-M. There are also no signals that these systems are being deployed near the Finnish border.
A few days ago, on 18 April 2024, the Ukrainians attacked with drones a beyond-the-horizon radar located in Mordovia, the 29B6, which is part of the Russian nuclear warning system. At that time, it was suggested that this was crossing one of the Kremlin's "red lines" for the use of nuclear weapons.
The Russian nuclear triad. What does it consist of?
Is Moscow currently ready to use such weapons? As explained by Łukasz Michalik, journalist of Wirtualna Polska, the Russian military doctrine is not unique. The provisions in it allow the use of nuclear weapons in strictly defined cases, which are related to the threat to the security and existence of Russia or an attack of such weapons on its allied state.
This provides a relatively large scope for propaganda speeches and even provocative actions, such as those at the Finnish border. Meanwhile, similar provisions have also been applied by other nuclear-armed countries, such as France.
Of course, Russia remains one of the few countries capable of maintaining a so-called nuclear triad, i.e., land, air, and sea means of nuclear weapon delivery. This is what constitutes the main element of Russian nuclear deterrence. It consists of strategic missile forces (including RS-12M Topol, RS-18, and RS-24 Yars missiles, where the range reaches from 11,000 km to 12,000 km, sometimes even up to 18,000 km), strategic bomber aviation (tactical bombers Tu-22M, Tu-95, and Tu-160) and nuclear submarines.
The Iskander-M represents so-called tactical nuclear weapons, created for different applications and not as threatening as the arsenal that makes up the nuclear triad. The Russians often talk about it, and the development of missiles with nuclear warheads for such systems aims to balance their combat potential with NATO.
The Russians use in their propaganda the fact that several NATO capitals are within the range of nuclear-armed and suitably positioned Iskander-M systems—Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Copenhagen, Berlin, Stockholm, and Helsinki. Despite intense efforts, Moscow has so far not received any reasons from NATO to use such weapons. In Russian public opinion, the nuclear triad is still considered a guarantee of the country's security and is perceived as one of the pillars of Putin's power.
