Moldova's President Sandu Rejects Military Action for Transnistria, Advocates for Diplomacy

Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova, has firmly stated her opposition to resolving the Transnistria conflict through military means. She believes that diplomacy is the sole viable approach. These comments were made during an interview with a Russian opposition journalist.

In discussions with Yuriy Dud, a Russian opposition journalist, President Sandu emphasized that "she will not agree to a military solution," as reported by the Belarusian independent news portal NEXTA on Twitter. Sandu reinforced her stance by asserting, "She sees only a diplomatic way to resolve the issue."

During the conversation, Sandu also addressed rumours about Ukraine's possible involvement, clarifying that she had not received any proposals from Kyiv regarding resolving the Transnistria issue.

According to Vladimir Socor, an expert from the Jamestown Foundation, the separatist authorities in Transnistria prefer to keep things as they were before 2022. However, Socor warns that if the Russians were to reach Odessa, Tiraspol’s navigation ability would be significantly reduced.

The strategic importance of Transnistria, a separatist region in Moldova, lies in its geographical placement between Ukraine and Russia. At the onset of the full-scale Russian aggression in 2022, Russia had aimed to capture Odessa – a move that would have positioned them alarmingly close to Transnistria. Approximately 62 miles from Odessa to Transnistria, the region is strategically separated from Russia. Socor explains the leadership in Transnistria enjoys considerable leeway due to Russia’s physical isolation, preventing Russia from bolstering or re-arming its contingent in the region.

Socor further elaborates on the potential consequences if Russian forces were to capture Odessa. The separatist authorities would likely be constrained, losing their maneuverability and access to the European market. He suggests that such a scenario would also diminish Chișinău's (the capital of Moldova) influence over Tiraspol. Despite this, it is worth noting that the Moldovan government aims not to harm Transnistria's economy but to ensure its survival and even prosperity, aiming to reintegrate Transnistria within Moldova's constitutional framework. If Odessa were to fall, these opportunities would vanish.