Moldova faces election meddling amid rising Russian influence
Presidential elections will be held in Moldova on 20th October. Moldovan authorities have noted intensified Russian hybrid actions ahead of the elections, which undermine the pro-Western government's policy and portray the EU in a negative light. A journalistic investigation has revealed who is being recruited by the Russians and how this is being accomplished.
19 October 2024 17:52
In the elections on Sunday, President Maia Sandu, who supports Moldova's integration with the European Union, will be seeking re-election. She faces ten challengers. She is considered the favourite in this election, although experts suggest that a second round is not out of the question. The next candidates in terms of support are the former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, supported by socialists, and the moderately pro-Russian Renato Usatii.
Simultaneously with the elections, a referendum initiated by Sandu will take place, asking citizens whether Eurointegration should be a strategic goal of the state and be included in the constitution.
The authorities are reporting an unprecedented scale of election interference, primarily involving a massive vote-buying campaign. This represents a significant test for Moldova before next year's parliamentary elections, which are anticipated to be crucial for the country's future.
People are being paid by Russia
In Moldova, there are individuals who are inclined towards Russia and are receptive to Russian narratives; however, the main threat to fair elections is the illegal money entering the country from Russia, Moldovan experts tell the Polish Press Agency (PAP).
People are being paid to vote against the EU and to express pro-Russian views. I would call it pragmatic Sovietism, says Andrei Curararu from the Watchdog.md foundation to PAP.
According to police data, in September alone, $15 million reached pro-Russian "activists" recruited by the structures of oligarch Ilan Shor. Experts estimate that the total amount spent on meddling in Moldovan elections could be as much as ten times higher.
- We cannot determine the exact scale, but it is certainly tens of millions of dollars. Such sums have not been used in Moldovan politics before, whether legally or illegally, says Ceban.
Targeting pensioners
Networks of "activists" operate on the internet and social media platforms. Consistent cooperation can earn one around 2,500 lei per month, roughly equivalent to a monthly pension.
- For elderly people living outside large cities, these are significant sums, practically an additional pension. Traditionally, pensioners are the targets of these campaigns. They vote themselves and persuade others. Moreover, they are traditionally a disciplined group of voters, explains Ceban.
The Moldovan newspaper "Ziarul de Garda" recently published the results of its journalistic investigation. A journalist infiltrated a group of activists pursued by Moldovan authorities, led by oligarch Shor. She detailed how recruitment operates and how Russian roubles from accounts in Russia—established with fake data—can be illegally transferred to Moldova through "intermediaries."
"Police cannot track all of them"
About 130,000 people are believed to be involved in the scheme described by the police. What impact could this have on the elections in Moldova? As Ceban notes, with 1.5 million voters, it is enough to exceed the 5 percent electoral threshold in parliamentary elections.
This suggests that such a scheme could enable one to introduce their own party into parliament, he emphasises.
- There is no doubt that this kind of election interference can influence the outcome. The methods of influence are so numerous that the police are unable to track all of them, says Andrei Curararu from the Watchdog foundation in an interview with PAP.
