Life expectancy to rise despite growing health challenges, predicts study

According to the latest forecasts published in "The Lancet", between 2022 and 2050, the average life expectancy of people globally is expected to increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women. This optimistic prediction is made despite threats like geopolitical conflicts, metabolic problems, and environmental issues. Although people will live longer, most additional years may be spent in poor health.

The study authors predict that the largest increase in average life expectancy will occur in countries where it is currently the lowest. This could help balance this indicator across various geographic areas. To a large extent, this trend will be driven by public health initiatives aimed at preventing cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, other infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal-perinatal problems, and nutritional education.

The study, which covered 204 countries and regions, suggests that the health burden related to infectious diseases will shift even more towards non-communicable diseases in the next generation. Among them are cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes. There will also be an increase in exposure to risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, unhealthy diet, and smoking.

As reported by "The Lancet", as the disease burden shifts towards non-communicable diseases, the so-called years of lost life are being replaced by years lived with disability. Therefore, specialists predict that more people will live longer but with more years spent in poor health. According to them, the global average life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years). However, the expected length of life in good health globally will increase by only 2.6 years over this period, from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050.

Dr. Chris Murray from the University of Washington, one of the study's authors, notes: "In addition to the overall increase in average life expectancy, we found that differences between various geographic regions will decrease (with the largest increase expected in Sub-Saharan Africa). This shows that although health inequalities between regions with the highest and lowest incomes will persist, they will nonetheless diminish."

Dr Murray adds that policy interventions to prevent and mitigate behavioural and metabolic risk factors offer the greatest chance of slowing down the global disease burden.

The study is based on the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, which showed that the total number of years lost due to poor health and premature death resulting from metabolic risk factors has increased by as much as 50 percent since 2000. The study authors also analysed alternative scenarios that allow comparing the potential health effects of various public health interventions.

They noticed that the scenario with the greatest beneficial impact on people's life expectancy and longevity is the one in which the greatest attention is focused on improving behavioural and metabolic risks. Closely following in terms of benefits are scenarios related to environmental safety and the improvement of children's nutrition and vaccination programmes.

"We have an enormous opportunity to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of the growing metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those associated with lifestyle, such as high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure," concludes Dr. Murray.