Life expectancy to increase globally by 2050, study finds

The latest forecasts published in The Lancet show that between 2022 and 2050, the average life expectancy worldwide is expected to increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women. These optimistic forecasts appear despite threats like geopolitical conflicts, metabolic problems, and environmental issues.

Researchers predict that the most significant increase in average life expectancy will occur in countries with the currently lowest life expectancy. This may contribute to levelling the average life expectancy in different regions globally. To a large extent, this trend will be strengthened by public health actions aimed at preventing cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and other infectious diseases, perinatal problems, and education on healthy eating.

The study, which covers 204 countries and regions, suggests that in the future, the health burden associated with diseases will shift from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. This includes cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes. At the same time, exposure to risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, unhealthy diet, and smoking will increase.

According to "The Lancet," although the disease burden will shift towards non-communicable diseases, the so-called lost years of life will be replaced by years lived with disability. Specialists emphasize that more and more people will live longer but with a more significant health burden.

They estimate that global average life expectancy will increase from 74 years in 2022 to 78 years in 2050 (a rise of 4.5 years), while global healthy life expectancy is expected to rise in the same period by only 2.6 years: from 65 years in 2022 to 67 years in 2050.

As noted by one of the study's authors, Dr Chris Murray from the University of Washington: "This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa."

Dr Murray adds that policy interventions to prevent and mitigate behavioural and metabolic risk factors represent the most incredible opportunity to slow down the global disease burden.

This study is based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 results, which showed that the total number of years lost due to health problems and premature death resulting from metabolic risk factors has increased by 50 per cent since 2000. The authors also analysed alternative scenarios to assess the potential impact of different health interventions.

The scenario focused on improving behavioural and metabolic risks, which positively impacted life expectancy and long-term fitness. Scenarios related to environmental safety and improving children's nutrition and vaccination programmes are slightly less beneficial.

"There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioural and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure," concludes Dr Murray.