Left-wing surge in France: Coalition hurdles for Macron
The Left Wing New People's Front secured the most seats in the parliamentary elections in France but did not achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly. According to former Polish ambassador to Paris, Andrzej Byrt, if President Emmanuel Macron appoints a left-wing government, it could trigger frictions and conflicts.
In the second round of parliamentary elections in France, the Alliance of Left-wing Parties, the New People's Front (NFP), secured the most seats with 182. President Emmanuel Macron's political camp came second with 168 seats. The far-right National Rally took third place with 143 seats.
The Republicans, on the other hand, introduced 45 deputies. The National Assembly will also include 15 right-wing party deputies who did not join Marine Le Pen's coalition, and 13 left-wing deputies from outside the New People's Front.
An absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly amounts to 289 seats. Despite receiving the most votes, the National Rally will not form a government on its own.
Despite the left's victory in the elections, it is not certain that the New People's Front will form the new government. Why? The political system of the Fifth Republic is designed to ensure the presidential formation’s majority.
As a result, coalition-building is rare in France. Macron has already announced that he will wait for the new parliament to be constituted before deciding whom he will entrust with the task of forming a government. The constitution grants the French president the exclusive authority to appoint the prime minister.
"They don't really have a choice"
What scenario unfolds after the elections depends on the talks between left-wing leaders and President Emmanuel Macron. He will assess whether the left-wing parties will be able to form a stable government, Andrzej Byrt, former Polish ambassador to Paris, told Wirtualna Polska.
Byrt recalls that after the results were announced, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of Unsubmissive France, the far-left group being the largest force in the New People's Front, gave a rather brazen interview in which he said that the president has no choice but to appoint someone from his group as prime minister.
He also ruled out the possibility of forming a broader coalition with non-left-wing parties and stated that Emmanuel Macron has the duty to appoint a left-wing coalition government. Before the first round, Macron said that the left's programme is worse than Marine Le Pen's. After such statements, it will be difficult for them to reach an agreement. But they don't really have a choice; they must come to some agreement, Byrt predicts.
The election result means one thing: a new government in France will not be formed quickly.
And if it is formed, it may be a minority left-wing government. A broad coalition between the left and the presidential camp or a technocratic, possibly apolitical, government is also possible. If the left-wing programme is implemented, it could be very costly for France and would certainly exceed the social spending proposed by Marine Le Pen’s group.
"It's adding to the costs"
The left wants to attack Macron's "pet project," the pension reform, enforced through a special procedure allowed by the French constitution, enabling it to be "pushed through" even without a majority vote. The French president will defend this reform to the very end. The left has also announced tax increases to finance other initiatives, including raising the minimum wage. Today, France is indebted to 110 percent of its GDP. The left's programme is adding to the costs, and France will become even further indebted, assesses Andrzej Byrt.
In his opinion, the key question is whether the left will want and be able to implement pre-electoral promises within a government.
If so, Macron may protest against it. In terms of foreign policy, nothing will change. But the president, who conducts it, must rely on support concerning funds for the new government. Both the left and Le Pen are critical regarding the extent of arms supplies to Ukraine, but the left, unlike the far-right, supports Ukraine's right to defend itself against Russian aggression, believes the former Polish ambassador to Paris.
The former diplomat has no doubt that domestic policy will differentiate the new government from the president.
Macron will probably not agree to increase taxes. The left wants to, for example, increase property taxes. They believe that people who inherited wealth from wealthy families and made it a source of their income should pay higher taxes to the state and thus contribute to financing poorer citizens of France – says Andrzej Byrt.
In his opinion, implementing the left-wing programme, which includes wage increases and raising the minimum wage, as well as freezing the prices of basic foodstuffs and energy, is "adding to the already enormous French public debt."
