Kremlin's controversial blueprint: Ukraine's potential partition unveiled
According to information provided by the Interfax-Ukraine agency, the Russian Ministry of Defence has developed a plan to dismantle Ukraine's statehood by dividing its territory into three separate parts. This project may be presented to the new administration of the United States.
The agency, citing sources in the Ukrainian special services, reports on a Kremlin document regarding the forecast of the military and political situation in the world until 2045. This plan envisions the partition of Ukraine, which is expected to lead to the loss of its current sovereignty.
Ukraine divided into "three separate parts"
The first part would consist of an area called "new regions of Russia", formed after the annexation by Moscow of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea and Sevastopol. Russian military activities are currently focused on consolidating control over these areas.
The second part would be a "pro-Russian state formation" with pro-Russian authorities, encompassing the regions: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and the city of Kyiv. According to Moscow's plan, this state would reject integration with the European Union and NATO and allow a Russian military presence on its territory.
The third part consists of "disputed territories" in western Ukraine, including the Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions. The Kremlin believes that the future of these areas should be determined by Russia in cooperation with neighbouring countries – Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
Russia considers four scenarios
Russia is also considering four scenarios for the development of the international situation. The scenarios of "US and Western dominance" and "China achieving the status of a leading world power" are assessed as unfavourable and may materialise in the event of a loss or freezing of the conflict with Ukraine.
On the other hand, the scenarios of "shaping a multipolar world and the division of spheres of influence by leading actors" and "regionalisation/chaotisation" assume Russia's victory over Ukraine and the development of the situation on terms favourable to the Kremlin.
It is not excluded that Moscow will attempt to present this plan to the new authorities in Washington through the governments and representatives of third-party states.
