ISW report: Russia accelerates preparations for NATO conflict
The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) in its latest report suggests that Russia is gearing up for a large-scale conventional war with NATO. This assumption is based on various financial, economic, and military indicators.
ISW believes that Russian efforts to stabilise the economy and finances are probably aimed at preparing for a possible future conflict with NATO, and not merely the prolonged war with Ukraine.
The think tank's analysts have observed that Russia is gearing up for a conflict with NATO faster than some Western analysts had previously anticipated. They highlight several financial, economic, and military factors that back up this view.
According to ISW's analysis, the Russian military is continuing structural reforms to support its involvement in Ukraine, while also enhancing its conventional capabilities in the long term, in anticipation of a potential large-scale conflict with NATO.
ISW points out that Vladimir Putin, Russia's dictator, criticised the current "orders" during a meeting with leaders of political factions in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament.
Russia not facing a major crisis
ISW suggests that Putin's aim to stabilise the financial situation may indicate that long-term stabilisation will require difficult measures against influential industrialists with political connections.
According to ISW, Russia does not currently appear to be on the brink of a financial crisis, with increased military spending being the only major change in its budget policy, suggesting that efforts to ensure future financial stability are long-term.
The think tank cites IMF forecasts predicting the Russian economy will grow by 2.6 percent in 2024.
ISW also highlights a statement from the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, in an interview for CNBC on March 20, where he remarked that Putin is ramping up efforts to shift the Russian economy towards military production, aiming for the capability to confront NATO in 2026-2027.
The think tank also notes that the Danish Defense Minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, announced on February 9 that Russia might try to attack a NATO country within the next three to five years.
The schedule for boosting Russia's capabilities will hinge on the financial resources Putin intends to allocate to the military.
ISW concludes that in the absence of any other rationale for Putin's willingness to risk his relationships with major players, amidst ongoing military expansion announcements, Putin likely aims to stabilise the economy and finances as a way of preparing for a potential large-scale future conflict with NATO, beyond just the extended conflict in Ukraine.
ISW analyses Russia's strategic moves
ISW also comments on a statement by Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, who revealed plans to expand Russia's conventional force capabilities. Shoigu mentioned plans to create an army corps and motorized rifle divisions, among others.
Shoigu added that by the end of 2024, Russia aims to form two general armies, 14 divisions, and approximately 16 brigades.
ISW suggests that Russia's preparations for a potential conflict might also be reflected in military personnel changes made by Shoigu, including appointing General Andrey Bulyga as Deputy Minister of Defence for Logistics.
