ISW report downplays likelihood of Russian nuclear engagement in Ukraine

The report from the Institute for the Study of War points out, "The Kremlin has not shown any significant escalatory responses to the new weapon systems provided to Ukraine by the West". ISW stresses that "the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine or elsewhere is highly unlikely".

In his speech, according to ISW, Putin "fell back on outdated rhetoric about negotiations and made veiled threats about nuclear capabilities". The Institute believes that such actions were likely aimed at capturing the attention of the West to advance the Kremlin's informational campaigns.

ISW remarked, "Putin and Russian officials frequently use the nuclear threat to instill fear in Western audiences and diminish support for Ukraine".

The think tank highlights that Putin is unrelenting in his pursuit of goals in Ukraine, which include forcing the country to surrender completely. Furthermore, Putin seeks to undermine and dismantle NATO. ISW asserts that Putin regards these objectives as "fundamental to Russia's national interests".

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According to ISW, the Kremlin's most recent strategy seems to be creating a facade of interest in negotiations to secure premature concessions from the West regarding Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

ISW points out that the majority of Putin's address focused not on the war but on outlining economic policies and social initiatives. This, the Institute suggests, is likely an attempt to mitigate the rising concerns among Russian citizens about the war's impact on the general populace. ISW notes that Russia's defence spending for this year has escalated to an unprecedented level.