Iowa poll surprise: Trump's unexpected victory over Harris
The poll results from the state of Iowa did not align with expectations. Just before the election, one polling agency predicted a win for Kamala Harris; however, Donald Trump won with a considerable margin. The study's author has commented on the situation.
In a poll published on Saturday by Ann Selzer and the "Des Moines Register," 47 per cent of respondents from Iowa expressed a desire to vote for Kamala Harris, while Trump garnered 44 per cent. This caused some surprise as Iowa is a state that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020.
Ann Selzer's forecast did not materialise. The "New York Times" reports that after counting 95 per cent of the votes, Trump has the support of 56.3 per cent, while his rival has 42.3 per cent.
The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today. I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me," stated Ann Selzer, as quoted by the "Des Moines Register".
Selzer explained that the errors may have originated from several technical factors.
- Technically, the poll had some 'give' in that neither candidate reached 50%. So, the people who said they had voted/would vote for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could easily have switched to Donald Trump. The late deciders could have opted for Trump in the final days of the campaign after interviewing was complete. The people who had already voted but opted not to tell our interviewers for whom they voted could have given Trump an edge," she explained.
