Germany anticipates 10 million Ukrainian refugees in potential escalation of conflict
The German government's scenario supposes that should the conflict be lost, an estimated 10 million people could leave Ukraine. Most such individuals are likely to emigrate to Western Europe, with Germany potentially being one of the main target countries.
In relation to this, CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter has called upon countries supporting Ukraine to significantly increase their military aid, citing the current delay by the USA.
"If we don't modify our strategy of supporting Ukraine, we face the worst-case scenario of a sizable exodus from Ukraine and the potential for the conflict to spread to NATO countries. In such a case, 10 million refugees might actually be a rather conservative estimate," he detailed to "Welt am Sonntag".
Gerald Knaus, a migration researcher, also thinks such a development is probable.
"If Ukraine were to lose the war, we could potentially see more than 10 million refugees arriving in the EU. We're already witnessing the largest displacement of refugees in Europe since the 1940s," he informed the newspaper. Since the onset of the Russian aggression campaign in February 2022, over a million people have fled Ukraine for Germany.
"Europe needs to take control"
In the meantime, Michael Roth (SPD), the Chairman of the Bundestag's Foreign Affairs Committee, proposes that "if the United States continues to fall short in its support, Europe needs to step up and take control".
"The EU needs to ponder taking collective responsibility for financial management. This approach would first and foremost cover financing of the Ukrainian budget and facilitate its long-term reconstruction. Second, there would need to be an acceleration of European defence production, and third, the provision of military equipment for Ukraine, particularly ammunition from not just Europe, but also globally," he stated.
"Despite the ongoing issues in Ukraine, the German government maintains the view that the country has sufficient military and financial resources to uphold its defences and stability until the end of 2024," according to reports from "Welt am Sonntag". Both German services and Western analysts believe that significant advancements on the front are unlikely this year.
