Croatia grapples with historic depopulation in new demographic strategy

The new Croatian government will be the first in the EU to establish a Ministry of Demography. "This shows how urgent the problem Croatia is facing is and how significantly it influences the country's economy and society as a whole," says Prof. Ivan Czipin from the University of Zagreb.

Sanja Klempić Bogadi, a demography expert at the Institute of Migration Studies, recalls that Croatia already had a ministry dealing with "demography, family, youth, and social policy," whose responsibilities were partially taken over by the Central Office for Migration and Youth in 2020. "I fear that the fact that the problem will be handled by a 'ministry' rather than an 'office' will not significantly improve the situation," highlights the interlocutor.

"Demographic problems have been heavily politicized in Croatia for ten years, which is more evident with the increasing number of foreign workers filling the gaps in the labour market," adds Klempić Bogadi.

Statistics show that the country's population started declining in 1991 when it still numbered 4.8 million. By 2021, the population had shrunk by about 900,000. "The war and the transition from a planned economy to a market economy accelerated the depopulation process," explains Prof. Czipin.

"Depopulation has most affected rural and less developed areas due to a lack of work and low wages," he adds. Emigration after joining the EU also plays a significant role, especially among young people. It is estimated that since 2013, several hundred thousand residents have left, mainly for Germany, Austria, Ireland, and other developed countries. He explains that differences in wages and living standards drive emigration, but also educational, family, political, and other considerations that should not be ignored.

"The last census conducted in 2021 showed that all counties experienced a decrease in residents. Croatia today is characterized by two demographic processes: depopulation and ageing," adds the Institute of Migration Studies analyst.

Among the reasons for the problems listed by PAP's interlocutors are:

• long-term migrations,
• an aging society,
• a low birth rate.

"Currently, the biggest demographic and economic problem is the lack of a workforce." We do not have precise data, but it is estimated that 300,000 and 400,000 people have emigrated from Croatia in the last ten years, most of whom were of working age. Labour market shortages are not solely due to emigration but also premature retirements related to transformation issues and the collapse of many companies," reminds Klempić Bogadi.

Recently, Croatia’s public debate has included several ideas to address—or alleviate—the country's demographic problems, including the possibility of bringing in emigrants from South American countries.

"Bringing these people in could have positive effects, but the number of Croats living abroad is regularly inflated. It is ignored that some of them, although of Croatian origin, have no connection to the country of their ancestors and do not identify with it," she notes. Potential immigrants from South America are up to the fourth generation, most of whom do not know the Croatian language. In recent years, similar ideas have not yielded results, which is why today I am decidedly sceptical," the expert observes.

Prof. Czipin shares her assessment, emphasizing that "many so-called Croats come from mixed families, often having only one ancestor who emigrated from Croatia. The mass return of these people and their descendants thus seems more of a pious wish than reality. Despite efforts to promote the diaspora's mass return, it seems we missed this opportunity in the 1990s," adds the expert from Zagreb University.

Experts emphasize the need to stop Croats from emigrating and attract workers from abroad, which could temporarily ease the problem.

"The government should focus on retaining the current population in Croatia. It is also necessary to adopt a long-term immigration policy that can adequately respond to future economic needs. Discussions about demography often ignore that quality of life is a key factor in retaining residents, so it is crucial to focus on education investment, which increases human capital, key to effective adaptation to demographic changes," explains Klempić Bogadi.

"The state can influence migration much more than other demographic processes. This may include providing financial incentives for returning people, simplifying bureaucratic procedures, easier employment in rare professions, or language learning. Additionally, it is important to develop programs that facilitate the integration of immigrants into Croatian society. Leaving migration policy to the market and employers could increase anti-immigrant sentiments among the local population, which should be avoided, learning from the bad experiences of some developed countries," points out Prof. Czipin.

He explains that attempts to increase child benefits often affect the timing of births rather than the number of children. "European demographers consider child benefits ineffective for newborns, while free kindergartens and flexible work arrangements are considered the most effective," he added.

"Young couples need more flexible working conditions and measures in the housing policy area that facilitate independence from parents. Attempts to encourage parenthood through financial incentives often do not yield a demographic effect," says Prof. Czipin.

"In demography, it is often said that the past shapes the present and the future. Croatia's demographic past, especially over the past three decades, has been unfavourable, so one cannot expect miracles and stop negative trends overnight. Low fertility and high emigration should not be treated solely as a 'problem to be solved' but as a 'symptom of other social problems.' Demographic trends are mainly consequences, and the causes lie elsewhere," concludes the professor from the University of Zagreb.