China's population crisis deepens: Births fall below deaths
The population of China has decreased for the third consecutive year. In 2024, the number of deaths exceeded births by 1.39 million. Rapid urbanisation, rising living costs, and gender inequalities are deepening the demographic crisis, and Chinese authorities are implementing programmes to increase birth rates.
According to data from China's Statistical Bureau, China's population decreased by 1.39 million in 2024, and the current population stands at 1.408 billion. This is the third consecutive year in which the number of deaths has exceeded the number of births. Despite a slight increase in the birth rate, experts warn that the rate of population decline may accelerate in the coming years.
Economic impacts of the population decline
The declining population is a significant challenge for the Chinese economy. A decreasing number of working-age people means shrinking labour resources and an ageing society leads to rising healthcare costs and burdens on the pension system.
In 2024, 9.54 million children were born, while 10.93 million died. The birth rate increased from 6.39 to 6.77 per 1,000 residents, but the article states that this still isn't sufficient to curb the demographic crisis.
The decline in births in China results from decades of the one-child policy (1980–2015) and rapid urbanisation. Living in cities, where childcare and education costs are higher than rural areas, discourages young people from starting families. In 2024, the urban population increased by 10.83 million, while in rural areas, it decreased by 3.2 million.
Economic difficulties, rising living costs, and an uncertain job market also exacerbate the reluctance of young Chinese to start families. An additional issue is gender discrimination and social expectations that women should mainly be responsible for raising children.
Professor Yun Zhou from the University of Michigan emphasizes that reversing the declining trend is unlikely without structural reforms, including enhancements to the social safety net and gender equality.
Chinese authorities are taking steps to increase fertility. In 2024, classes promoting a positive image of marriage and parenthood were introduced, and efforts were made to encourage marriages at a younger age. Nevertheless, the number of women of reproductive age is expected to decrease by over two-thirds by the end of the century, posing a significant challenge to the pension system, which, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, may become insolvent by 2035.
