China's nuclear expansion: America's outdated arsenal exposed

China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. For decades, Beijing maintained a relatively stable potential – a few dozen land-based missiles with nuclear warheads placed in fixed silos and on a limited number of mobile launchers.

Even this modest arsenal was partially reduced in the 1990s, but in recent years, China has been rapidly catching up with the United States and Russia.

In just a few years, China has built approximately 300 intercontinental missile silos. Missile silo fields have emerged in the Chinese deserts in at least three locations (Hami, Yumen, and Hanggin Qi silo fields, as well as the Jilantai training centre), and satellite images show the scale of Beijing's armament.

It is visible from space – the images reveal not only the locations of the bases but also the rapid pace at which new installations are being constructed.

Although popular culture has solidified the image of missile bases where silos are next to each other, in reality, they are hundreds of metres or even kilometres apart. This aims to make it difficult to destroy the entire base with one nuclear warhead.

Moreover, not all silos must contain missiles, as some could have been built as decoys. It is also worth noting that Chinese grandiosity does not always go hand in hand with quality – as it turned out, some of the newly built silos are unusable due to various defects.

There are increasing doubts about the alleged scandal revealed by Bloomberg in which rocket fuel in the Chinese rocket forces was swapped with water. Although these reports were echoed by media around the world, some experts believe that Beijing deliberately disinformation to conceal the actual reasons for the purges in the army and administration.

The scale of the expansion of China's nuclear triad, especially its land-based component, has raised concerns in the United States – according to a Pentagon report presented to Congress, the number of Chinese launchers now exceeds the number of American launchers. The Pentagon has approximately 450 silos, of which 400 are combat-ready.

The American problem, in this case, is not the number but the contents of the silos – they contain Minuteman III missiles, which were commissioned over half a century ago. The American nuclear arsenal is still vast but also a technology museum.

This is the result of a series of decisions that led to the decommissioning of the modern LGM-118A Peacekeeper missiles in 2005. As a result, while Russia is intensively modernising its strategic rocket forces and China is expanding them, the United States is left with half-century-old missiles.

Work on the new LGM-35A Sentinel missile is an attempt to improve the situation, but in the optimistic scenario, it will achieve operational readiness no earlier than 2030.

Meanwhile, Beijing, which has a complete nuclear triad (land, sea, and air-based delivery systems), is also developing its maritime component. Currently, China operates Type 094 submarines as carriers of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, whose original armament – JL-2 missiles – did not allow attacks on the USA from Chinese territorial waters.

To execute an attack, the submarines had to sail far east, which allowed them to be detected and destroyed. Currently, Americans no longer have this possibility—in recent years, Beijing has rearmed its boomers with JL-3 missiles, whose range of 10,000 kilometres allows attacks on the United States from their own waters without risking valuable submarines.

Moreover, China has already developed a successor to the Type 094 submarines – Type 096, which will probably be slightly larger, certainly quieter, and built to meet stealth requirements. Satellite images show that constructing at least one new type of submarine has already begun. The probable entry into service of the new units is estimated to be at the end of the current decade.