CDU/CSU faces decline; SPD and AfD see slight gains

According to the latest poll by the public television network ARD "Deutschlandtrend," the Christian Democratic parties, CDU and CSU, can count on 31 per cent of voters - a decrease of two percentage points compared to the mid-December poll. Nevertheless, CDU/CSU clearly remains in the lead. In second place is the right-wing populist AfD with 20 per cent, and the Social Democrats (SPD) in third with 15 per cent (in both cases an increase of one percentage point).

The Greens remain behind them at an unchanged 14 per cent, while the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains at 5 per cent.

The liberal FDP and the "Left Party" each gained one point: both would reach four per cent, but still would not exceed the electoral threshold. All other parties combined would gain seven per cent (down two).

Six weeks before the elections, 37 per cent of respondents consider refugees and immigration to be the most important issue. This is an increase of 14 percentage points compared to December 2024. Just behind is the state of the economy with 34 per cent (down eleven). The following topics ranked next: war and peace (14 per cent, down by four), environment and climate (13 per cent, up by one), and social injustices (unchanged at 11 per cent).

The public opinion research institute Infratest dimap conducted a survey among 1,323 eligible voters between 6 and 8 January 2025.