Breaking the longevity barrier: Can humans live to 130 years?

These individuals are currently among the longest-living, yet David McCarthy from the University of Georgia in the USA predicts that this barrier could soon be broken, as reported by rynekzdrowia.pl, based on recent publications.

According to his research, improvements in quality of life and medical advancements, particularly after World War II, mean those born at the start of the 20th century, especially around 1910, could set lifespan records. Currently, the oldest among this group is over 110 years old, and within the next decade, we may see if some of them reach beyond 122 years. According to Professor McCarthy, some might even live to be 130 years old.

In the 20th century, the average lifespan increased significantly. At the start of the century in Western countries, it did not exceed 45 years, but now it is about 80 years for both genders combined. If this growth trend continued rapidly, children born at the beginning of the 21st century could routinely live to a hundred years. However, the latest studies conducted by Professor S. Jay Olshansky from the University of Illinois in Chicago and his team suggest that this scenario is unlikely.

Analyses covering the 1990s to 2019 period, before the pandemic, included nine countries with the highest life expectancies, such as France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong, and the United States. The study's results showed that the average lifespan in the surveyed countries increased by 6.5 years, 78.8 years in the USA in 2019 and 85 in Hong Kong. However, the rate of increase declined from 2010 to 2019 compared to the previous two decades, with Hong Kong as the exception. The sustained growth rate in this city may be linked to better access to healthcare, which is crucial in ageing societies.

In the United States, the relatively low average lifespan is partly due to higher mortality rates caused by opioid abuse. Professor Olshansky and his team predict that if significant changes do not occur, the expected lifespan for men will not exceed 84 years, and for women, 90 years. Likely, only a few people born at the beginning of the 21st century will reach a hundred years. According to Olshansky, we are nearing the biological limits of our lives despite previously benefiting from medical advancements, including vaccinations.

Professor Jan Vig from the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York argues that biological constraints prevent lifespan extension beyond a certain point, with the upper limit being around 115 years. Some experts, like Professor Gerry McCartney from the University of Glasgow, suggest that the slowdown in lifespan growth may result from limited access to medical care. Others, such as Professor Michael Rosé from the University of California, believe that prolonging human life is possible through appropriate therapies and medicines, though this requires substantial investments.