Bosnia at a crossroads: Aspirations for EU membership amidst internal unrest
The authorities of one of the autonomous units of Republika Srpska aim to separate from the rest of the country. Its president, Milan Dodik, is a close ally of Vladimir Putin. The European Commission is keen to commence accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina, but some Community members are hesitant, as the country's internal situation is fraught.
The Balkan cauldron—a term that aptly describes the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a nation riddled with national conflicts. Like a large portion of the Balkans, Bosnia is a cultural tapestry, with Serbian and Croatian influences intertwined alongside Turkish ones.
While Yugoslavia remained intact, conflicts could be subdued. After its breakup, a disintegration process began, culminating in a bloody conflict from 1992 to 1995. The Dayton agreement concluded the war in Bosnia, which partitioned the state into three administrative entities. The two principal ones are the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, with the small Brčko District between them.
The president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, a Serbian nationalist, aspires to secede the part of Bosnia he oversees and merge it with Serbia. His proposal is backed by Russia. Vladimir Putin has entertained the Serbian leader on numerous occasions.
In February, Putin even bestowed upon him the highest Russian honour - the Order of Alexander Nevsky for "facilitating the development of cooperation between the Russian Federation and Bosnia and Herzegovina and amplifying the partnership with Republika Srpska." Russia exploits the instability in the Balkans to deter countries in the region from joining the EU or NATO.
Bosnia in the European Union? Two countries dissent
Bosnia and Herzegovina is eager to join the European Union despite its internal strife. It submitted a request to join the Community in February 2016. By December 2022, it had achieved candidate country status.
As reported by the portal i.pl, the European Commission advocates for EU summit talks, scheduled for this week (21-22 March), to commence accession discussions. Ursula von der Leyen put forward this recommendation. She argued, "merely waiting for the Western Balkans to draw nearer to us is insufficient, as is merely stating that the doors are open."
Nevertheless, this proposal doesn’t appeal to all members. Denmark and the Netherlands mainly voiced objections. EU members are bewildered that the report on Bosnia's advancement towards the Community is overwhelmingly positive.
Meanwhile, Dodik relentlessly showcases his defiance against the central authorities. He is determined to establish parallel and independent institutions from Sarajevo within Republika Srpska. He ignores decisions made by Christian Schmidt, the high representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Due to disagreements in the Constitutional Court, the Serbs enacted laws stating that rulings by the Constitutional Court of BiH were not applicable in Republika Srpska. Dodik openly declares his intent to make Republika Srpska independent. He aims to achieve this by the end of Joe Biden's presidency, anticipating Donald Trump's return to the presidency of the USA. This ambition could ignite another conflict in the Balkans.
