Biden vs Trump: The unreliable dance of election polls
4 May 2024 12:32
With the presidential elections in the United States drawing near, polls are being released nearly daily. The latest results suggest that Donald Trump has lost his leading position to Joe Biden. But how reliable are these polls? "Polls are only a snapshot of a particular moment; they are inaccurate for predicting," says Prof. Allan Lichtman.
The presidential elections in the United States are closely watched, as their outcome affects not only the US but also Europe. Joe Biden has been supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia for over two years, whereas Donald Trump has indicated he might reduce support for Kyiv.
Who will win the US election? "Polls are much less reliable"
Even though the US elections will take place in November, daily polls now show only a slim margin between Biden and Trump. In some polls, the incumbent president is ahead, reversing the situation from a few months ago when Trump had a noticeable lead.
"Regarding these polls, one should heed the advice of the renowned philosopher David Hume, which is to be sceptical of them. It's best to disregard these polls. They cannot accurately predict election outcomes; instead, they often present misleading information, as was the case in 2016," comments Prof. Allan Lichtman, an American historian and political scientist, discussing the recent polls with Interia.
It's important to remember that in 2016, polls predicted Hillary Clinton's victory, yet Donald Trump became president. This leads Prof. Lichtman to believe that "polls currently being published are far less reliable than one might think".
Prof. Lichtman is recognized in the US for developing "The Keys to the White House," a system for forecasting election outcomes. The esteemed academic has only once made an incorrect prediction in the ten elections he's assessed.
"Polls are merely a reflection of a specific point in time; they are not suitable for making forecasts, and the so-called margin of error is often larger than reported," Prof. Lichtman explains to Interia. He notes that polls currently tend to underestimate Democrats, whereas eight years ago, Republicans were more likely to be undervalued.
Prof. Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" method does not rely on polls or expert predictions. He believes "the quality of governance, not the campaign, is what matters." He evaluates the performance of the party in power and the public's perception of the president.
In a recent interview with "The Guardian", the American scholar expressed that "a lot of negative events would need to occur for Biden to lose." He hasn't yet made his traditional election forecast, but Prof. Lichtman points out that the current president has several strengths. The election's outcome could be influenced by factors such as the progression of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as the situation in Ukraine.
