Austria's political crossroads: Kickl's pro‑russian challenge
After entrusting the mission of forming a government to the leader of the pro-Russian FPÖ party, Herbert Kickl, "There is a significant risk of a shift in Austria's foreign policy direction," assessed Jakub Bielamowicz from the Institute of New Europe in an interview with the Polish Press Agency.
On Monday, the President of Austria, Alexander Van der Bellen, tasked Herbert Kickl, the leader of the far-right, Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant, and pro-Russian Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), with forming a new government. This occurred after a weekend failure of coalition negotiations led by the former leader of the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), Karl Nehammer.
At a press conference, the president explained that new circumstances have emerged on the Austrian political scene, making the appointment of the Freedom Party leader as chancellor possible.
Jakub Bielamowicz shares a similar opinion, explaining that "with the resignation of Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer, a real possibility of forming an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition government has opened up." The analyst reminded that "it was Nehammer who was the most ardent opponent of elevating 'extremist' Kickl to the chancellor's post."
He highlighted that following Nehammer's resignation, the interim head of the Christian-democratic ÖVP became Christian Stocker, the deputy mayor of Wiener Neustadt, known for his pragmatic approach to political tasks. On Sunday, Stocker declared that if his party is invited to coalition negotiations, the People's Party will participate in those talks.
"It is worth noting that the negotiating position of the FPÖ will be very strong," Bielamowicz emphasised, pointing to the record-high ratings of the Freedom Party. Recent polls give them 6-8 percentage points more than they achieved in the September elections. "Kickl and FPÖ negotiators can always threaten the readiness to participate in early elections, after which their position as a larger coalition partner would be even stronger," the analyst explained.
He expressed concerns related to a potential ÖVP-FPÖ cabinet. "The previous experiences with 'black-blue' coalitions of these parties from 2000-2007 and 2017-2019 were very negative." These governments were accompanied by considerable instability, numerous corruption scandals, and poor personnel decisions, especially on the part of FPÖ, recalled Bielamowicz.
What the new Austrian government might do
He suggested that the Freedom Party, strengthened by the recent failures of mainstream parties (ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS) after taking over power, might become even more radical. "Actions aimed at weakening the rule of law by this party cannot be ruled out, especially as some attempts were already made in ministries previously controlled by FPÖ politicians," he emphasised.
Bielamowicz noted that the leader of the Freedom Party does not hide who his political role model is. "Herbert Kickl is strongly inspired by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, which he openly admits in public statements," he pointed out.
He also highlighted the threats posed by the pro-Russian sympathies of the potential new chancellor. "There is a significant risk of a shift in Austria's foreign policy direction," he assessed. He recalled that in 2016, the FPÖ signed a friendship agreement with Putin's United Russia party and consistently expresses opposition to supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.
The analyst also emphasised that none other than former Austrian Foreign Minister from FPÖ, Karin Kneissl, invited Vladimir Putin to her wedding. "After all this, she fled to Russia, where she became a propagandist for the local regime media," he observed.
Despite this, Bielamowicz sees a light at the end of the tunnel. "A certain moderating influence on the foreign policy of a potential government involving FPÖ might come from the foreign affairs ministry being headed by a representative of a more moderate Christian democracy," he predicts.
failure of previous negotiations
Chancellor Nehammer announced his resignation from the head of the government and leader of the conservative ÖVP on Saturday after the failure of negotiations to form a government coalition without the FPÖ. Previously, the chancellor's party made a final attempt at coalition talks with the Social Democrats.
In the parliamentary elections held on 29th September, the FPÖ won, securing 28.8% of the votes. The previously ruling ÖVP came in second with 26.3%, followed by the SPÖ (21.1%), the liberal NEOS (New Austria and Liberal Forum; 9.2%), and the Greens (8.3%).
Despite the Freedom Party's victory, President Van der Bellen entrusted the outgoing Chancellor Nehammer with forming a new government. He explained this decision by citing the fact that the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats firmly opposed joining a government led by the FPÖ leader.
