Asteroid YR4 poses slight risk: UN activates watch teams
Asteroid YR4, discovered at the end of 2024, is being closely monitored by scientists. The UN has launched two response teams tasked with observing the object. For now, the threat of YR4 hitting Earth is fortunately minimal, but its impact would be catastrophic enough that it's better to be safe than sorry.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 27 December 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. According to the BBC, it measures between 40 and 90 metres in diameter. This means that if it were to strike Earth, it could cause effects comparable to a nuclear bomb explosion. If it were to hit a densely populated area, it would probably destroy everything within a radius of several dozen kilometres.
Scientists are observing the asteroid. They've calculated whether it will hit Earth
Fortunately, according to current knowledge and calculations, the threat of 2024 YR4 hitting our planet is minimal. The European Space Agency (ESA) reported that the asteroid has nearly a 99% chance of safely passing Earth. This is expected to occur on 22 December 2032. The threat of collision with the "blue planet" is 1.3 percent.
It is also worth noting that the object has reached level 3 on the Torino scale. This is an 11-level scale used by NASA to assess the threat of cosmic disasters. A level of three in this case indicates a "close encounter requiring the attention of astronomers and the public." However, it is important to remember that a collision with Earth is only certain at levels 8, 9, and 10. Significantly, in the course of more detailed and long-term observations, the levels on the Torino scale may decrease.
However, the UN has decided to react. Two response teams have been activated - the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). For now, as scientists admit, there is no reason to panic, but 2024 YR4 will be under constant surveillance. If the probability of an asteroid impact remains above the 1% threshold, SMPAG will provide recommendations to the UN and may begin evaluating available options.
Importantly, in the coming months, the asteroid will start to fade from view, after which its observation will continue with ground and space telescopes. According to ESA, "It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA's risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028."
