Apophis Asteroid Deemed Safe by Scientists After Comprehensive Study

Apophis, an asteroid discovered in 2004, was initially considered one of the most dangerous for Earth. There were fears that it could hit our planet, especially during its close approaches in 2029 and 2036. On 13 April 2029, Apophis will pass by Earth at a distance of just about 37,000 km.

However, despite the close flyby, there is always a possibility that this asteroid will collide with another celestial body, which could change its orbit and potentially make it dangerous for Earth. This possibility motivated the scientists to conduct a detailed analysis.

"We calculated the paths of all known asteroids, using a computer simulation of the Solar System, and assessed the chances of this type of unlikely event occurring. Fortunately, we do not predict any such collision" - says Prof. Paul Wiegert, the author of the work that is to appear in the "Planetary Science Journal".

Professor Benjamin Hyatt, one of the researchers, adds: "Considering how close Apophis will come to Earth, there theoretically exists a risk that its trajectory could change so that it would hit Earth. Hypothetically, a collision with another asteroid could cause this. This motivated us to check the risk, regardless of how small it is".

Apophis, named after the Egyptian demon symbolising evil and chaos, will not cause any destruction in the foreseeable future, according to scientists. "Apophis has fascinated us - as a human species - since its discovery in 2004. It represented the first real asteroid threat. Even now, when we know it will miss us by a hair, astronomers remain vigilant. It's an asteroid we cannot stop watching" – says Prof. Wiegert.

Celestial bodies that come close to Earth, such as asteroids, are called "Near-Earth Objects" (NEO). Scientists count among this group those bodies that pass through the orbit closer than 2 astronomical units from the Sun (an astronomical unit is the average distance from the Earth to the Sun, about 150 million km).

Currently, we know tens of thousands of these NEOs. They are discovered, catalogued, and tracked through special observational projects. Among them, potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA) are distinguished, which approach closer than 0.05 astronomical units (about 7.5 million miles from the Moon) and are large enough that they would cause a regional-scale catastrophe, in the event of an impact (sizes larger than 140 metres).

Celestial bodies regularly pass close to Earth. In early February, a cosmic rock that could have been as much as 480 metres in diameter passed by our planet. Before this event, astronomers reassured that the flyby distance would be about 2.7 million km. The asteroid passed us at a speed of about 18 km/s. It belonged to the group of those potentially dangerous (approach closer than 0.019 astronomical units).

Information on predicted close flybys of asteroids is publicly available online. They can be tracked on websites such as the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) website.