After Thursday's debate commentary: Biden's stumble raises fresh doubts among Democrats
The Democrats pushed for an exceptionally early debate between Biden and Trump. They hoped that the president would dispel voters' doubts about his biggest issue in this campaign—his advanced age. The effect was the opposite.
The whole world saw a tired president, speaking in a soft, hoarse voice, unable to communicate his thoughts effectively. Voters, already full of doubts about whether Biden's age and health are obstacles to his next term, only saw their concerns reinforced.
On Friday, American media reported on "panic in the Democratic camp." Publications close to the president began calling for him to withdraw from the presidential race for the good of American democracy and let someone younger take on Trump. Democrats can console themselves that Biden's poor performance happened several months before the election, not a few weeks. This gives the current president time to recover or his party time to change the candidate.
Biden now needs to convince Americans that he had a bad day
But can Biden still make up for the losses? Historically, winning a televised debate has brought candidates an average poll boost of 0.7 percentage points within two weeks. This is not an insignificant value in elections where minimal vote differences in a few key states can be decisive. However, even if Trump increases his lead by 1 or 2 percentage points after the debate, Biden has time to recover the losses within four months.
In 2012, Barack Obama, fighting for re-election, lost the first debate to Mitt Romney. At the time, there were also comments that Obama had lost his chance for a second term. However, the president managed to win the election.
However, Obama did not have a problem with age and health, which will be crucial for many voters in deciding whether to support Biden. A similar problem plagued Ronald Reagan in 1984. He was then 73 years old – eight years younger than Biden today, making him the oldest sitting president at the time.
Reagan lost the first debate to Walter Mondale, often appearing confused and older. However, he won the second debate by turning his age into a joke, saying:
"I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."
Even more than Reagan after his first debate in 1984, Biden now needs to convince Americans that he just had a bad day on Thursday. Even during the debate, Democrats informed the media that the president was fighting a cold and hoarseness and, therefore, spoke so softly and unclearly.
In 2022, John Fetterman, recovering from a stroke and fighting for a Senate seat from Pennsylvania, performed poorly in a televised debate. Still, his visible struggle with the illness won him the sympathy of voters and helped secure his victory. However, it is unknown whether a similar mechanism will work for a candidate for the highest office in the States.
Biden now needs to show Americans a better side of himself. He must recover, deliver a few good, energetic speeches, and show that he has the strength to campaign actively. First, he must also arrange for another debate with Trump in September and then win it.
At the same time, his campaign must more effectively show Americans the dangers of a second Trump term than Biden did on Thursday. And these are significant from the point of view of liberal and moderate voters. Trump is running this year with a much more radical programme than in 2016 and 2020, having also learned better during his four years in the White House precisely what to do to implement his proposals.
How and who could replace Biden?
The question the party is asking itself today is: is Biden still capable of this? Can he take on Trump and win? Wouldn't it be better to put forward someone else?
This last option is possible until the Democratic convention, scheduled for 19-22 August in Chicago. If Biden, as commentators close to the Democrats have been demanding since yesterday, resigned and gave the convention delegates the freedom to choose a new candidate, new small primaries would begin within the party—candidates would fight for the votes of the convention delegates.
The problem is that there are too many potential candidates to replace Biden, and no candidacy is obvious. In some sense, it should seem natural for Biden to point to his vice president, Kamala Harris, as his successor. Still, few in the Democratic Party believe that the poorly-rated politician could defeat Trump.
Among the potential candidates are popular Democratic governors – Gavin Newsom from California, Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, Wes Moore from Maryland, Senator Amy Klobuchar, or Congressman Ro Khanna. However, each of these candidacies has flaws, including Newsom, who is currently the most "presidential" looking.
Party leaders, including potential candidates, are cutting off the discussion about replacing Biden. Although theoretically, the convention in Chicago could choose someone else – even if the sitting president did not withdraw, it is not politically feasible. And nothing indicates that Biden is thinking about withdrawing. The president is known for his stubbornness, and American media reports that he is convinced that only he can stop Trump.
If anyone could persuade Biden to change his mind, it would be his wife, Jill Biden. However, the First Lady has been known as a determined supporter of her husband's run this year. After the debate, Biden announced that he did not intend to withdraw from the presidential race. "I intend to win," he declared.
The scenario in which Trump returns to the White House is visible
It is not hard to imagine the worst scenario for Democrats now. In the coming weeks, the party may argue internally about what to do next with Biden but will fail to choose someone else – or convince the president to resign. A weakened and internally divided party will finally give Biden the nomination in August but without much confidence in success.
At the same time, the president will not fare better in the coming months of the campaign than on Thursday. Recordings from rallies, meetings with supporters, and press conferences will show a tired, older man unable to meet the challenges of the presidency. If a second debate with Trump occurs, Biden will again perform poorly in it.
Voters will conclude that the president did not have a bad day in June but is no longer fit to be president. Even if those voters do not vote for someone like Trump, staying home could give him victory in the key states necessary to secure a majority in the Electoral College.
If this scenario happens – potentially very dangerous for American democracy and its allies – the blame will not only fall on Biden but also on the leadership of the Democratic Party. Because they could have noticed earlier that Biden's age would be a serious problem in this campaign and forced a generational change in the party.
As commentator Ezra Klein argued in a discussion in the New York Times, the option to replace Biden with someone else was closed by the surprisingly good results for the Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives, but the scale of the victory was much smaller than expected, and their results were significantly worse than usual for a party opposing the president at the midterm of his term.
This result strengthened Biden so much that no serious competitor to the president dared to challenge him this year. The most serious Democratic politicians, led by Newsom, became involved in Biden's campaign, treating it as a springboard to build their own popularity before the 2028 presidential election.
For this relative success of 2022 and the resulting strengthening of Biden, Democrats may now pay with a second term for Trump. Unless Biden simply had a bad day on Thursday, and things will only get better now.
