Biden administration set to supply game-changing JASSM missiles to Ukraine

According to Reuters, the Biden administration is nearing approval of the decision to supply Ukraine with JASSM missiles. This weapon, used on the frontline, could significantly affect the conflict's course. We explain which other equipment has had similarly significant implications for the war's outcome.

Reuters reported on the planned supply of AGM-158 JASSM missiles to Ukraine, citing unofficial sources in the U.S. administration. Although the decision has not been formally approved, President Biden is keen on delivering the missiles to Ukraine.

According to Reuters sources, transferring these new weapons could take several months, during which the administration must resolve "technical problems" related to the delivery. The missiles would be used with the F-16 aircraft already supplied to Ukraine.

AGM-158 JASSM is a modern cruise missile with a range of approximately 300 kilometres for the basic version and over 1,000 kilometres for the JASSM-ER variant. The weapon's important advantage is its stealth characteristics, which make it difficult to detect and combat. In the basic version, its significant advantage is the warhead weight—with the total missile weight exceeding 1,000 kilograms, the warhead weighs as much as 450 kilograms.

In the JASSM-ER variant, with a range of over 1,000 kilometres, the warhead weight is smaller – to increase the range while maintaining the same dimensions and weight of the missile, it was necessary to reduce the combat load in favour of additional fuel. One of the users of JASSM missiles is Poland.

After supplying JASSM missiles to Ukraine, Kyiv will gain new capabilities to attack targets within Russia. However, this weapon's actual significance depends on politics and the restrictions imposed on Kyiv regarding the freedom to use long-range Western weapons.

One of the key weapons in the early days of the conflict turned out to be guided artillery shells. At the beginning of the war, Ukraine had a stockpile of Kvintyk shells, which its industry developed and produced. Laser-guided 152 mm shells were used in the first critical days of the war, among other things, to repel Russian forces moving towards Kyiv.

After exhausting its own guided artillery ammunition, Ukraine began using captured Russian 30F39 Krasnopol shells. Ukrainian armed forces also received guided artillery shells of Western production – M982 Excalibur.

Excaliburs made a very successful debut. Initially, their accuracy was estimated at an impressive 70 percent, and single shells successfully destroyed Russian tanks at a range of dozens of kilometres.

However, due to Russian countermeasures, the effectiveness of this weapon quickly began to decrease. GPS signal jamming caused the accuracy of Excalibur shells to drop to about 6 percent within just a few weeks.

This is particularly severe for a guided shell because the combat load it carries is smaller than that of unguided shells due to the necessity of incorporating guidance and control systems into the shell. Even a small miss-distance increase significantly reduces the chances of destroying the target in such cases.

The M142 HIMARS launchers were also very significant. The appearance of this weapon on the frontline, along with GMLRS missiles with a range of up to 80 kilometres, temporarily paralysed Russian logistics. Shelling of frontline warehouses forced the Russians to move them to a deeper rear, significantly affecting the capabilities of the units fighting against Ukraine.

Over time, the effectiveness of HIMARS – though they remain a formidable weapon – began to decrease. This is due to the fact that Russians are effectively and on a large scale using electronic warfare, one of its manifestations being the jamming of GPS satellite signals.

Without satellite navigation, the missile is still guided—it uses dead reckoning navigation (inertial navigation). Based on data about its own speed, flight direction, and many other factors, the guidance system is able to approximately determine the position relative to a known coordinate target. However, this method is less accurate, which significantly reduces the effectiveness of shelling using GMLRS missiles.

The naval part of Ukraine's war will go down in military history: a state without a navy managed to resist and then force the retreat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

In the early period of the war, the Russian Black Sea Fleet – despite suffering losses – successfully carried out its task, conducting a naval blockade of Ukraine; over time, this situation changed.

Ukraine virtually does not have a navy – even the corvettes ordered from Turkey – for security reasons – sailed under the Turkish flag during sea trials. Despite this, thanks to naval drones, it managed to threaten the Black Sea Fleet.

Naval drone attacks, combined with the use of Storm Shadow missiles and SCALP-EG, made Sevastopol and Crimea no longer safe places for Russian ships. To protect their units, Russia was forced to withdraw most of them to ports on the eastern shore of the Black Sea.